Feeling the pinch
Roadside vendors, drivers in Asia brace for fuel shortage amid Middle East conflict
Editor's note: In this weekly feature China Daily gives voice to Asia and its people. The stories presented come mainly from the Asia News Network (ANN), of which China Daily is among its 20 leading titles.
The bombs have been falling in the Middle East for a while, but a nondescript tea stall in Kolkata, capital of India's West Bengal state, is among those feeling the aftershocks rippling through Asia since the conflict began.
The stall's owner, Abhijit Chakraborty, 45, is worried that rising cooking gas prices could hurt his earnings. Indian state-run oil marketing companies raised the price of domestic cooking gas for a cylinder of 14.2-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, from early March, pushing rates to their highest level in over two years.
The country imports roughly two-thirds of its LPG requirements, mostly from the Middle East. About 90 percent of these imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping line linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
Chakraborty uses up one cylinder of LPG each month, and he fears further price hikes could trim his monthly take-home earnings of around 12,000 rupees ($130).
"A price rise will hit everyone. If someone had three cups of tea a day, he will now have just one," he said. "I will be the one to lose."
A supply crunch has forced companies to divert commercial supplies to domestic and other essential sectors. As a result, restaurants and hotels in several Indian cities, including Bengaluru and Mumbai, are running low and have threatened to shut.
If the conflict in Iran persists, there are fears that cooking gas prices could go up further, forcing price-sensitive households to reduce their LPG consumption and switch to cheaper and more polluting fuels such as firewood and cow dung cakes.
"This can significantly cause backsliding on the huge gains on clean cooking access that India has been able to achieve in the last decade," said Sunil Mani, a policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
In Noida, a city adjacent to the Indian capital New Delhi, Ranjana Devi is among many in the country who are now thinking of firing up their chulahs, a traditional Indian cooking stove, typically made of mud or brick and used commonly in rural areas.
The 35-year-old's stove is built on the terrace of her home as a backup when gas runs out. She may soon feed it with firewood sourced from the roadside and fields or cheap dung cakes.
Her family, which sells vegetables at a roadside stall, has yet to secure a government gas subscription and buys cylinders from unauthorized market dealers. While it cost 1,100 rupees per cylinder earlier, the family forked out 250 rupees more for one after the recent hike in prices, she said.
Health concerns from using her smoke-belching chulah are now secondary for her. "What choice do I have if gas becomes so expensive?"
Families and businesses across Asia are feeling the pinch as US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its retaliatory actions have significantly disrupted fuel production and supply.
Markets in turmoil
Around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply is already suspended, throwing oil markets into turmoil, especially in Asia, which buys close to 90 percent of oil exports from West Asia.
Japan and the Philippines rely on the Middle East for around 90 percent of their oil needs, while South Korea and India import roughly 70 percent and 55 percent, respectively, from that region.
There are concerns that the fuel shortages could also mean higher inflation and rising interest rates.
In the Philippines, transport groups say the impact of rising global oil prices is already being felt by drivers despite the government rolling out measures to cushion the blow.
Mar Valbuena, chairman of Manibela, a group representing about 50,000 jeepney taxi drivers and operators, said that drivers' earnings have already been squeezed.
"This week alone, drivers have been losing about 300 pesos ($6.50) in daily income," he said in early March, adding many now take home only about 400 pesos after 12 to 15 hours on the road. They usually earn up to double that.
University of the Philippines Diliman School of Economics Assistant Professor JC Punongbayan estimated that rising fuel costs could push up the price of transportation, electricity and food, with inflation — which stood at 2.4 percent in February — possibly climbing further.
Countries in Asia have already announced a host of measures to shield themselves.
Bangladesh has introduced fuel rationing at gas stations to stop panic buying, while the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand have switched to work-from-home arrangements to reduce fuel and electricity consumption.
On March 9, Dhaka said it would also close all universities from Monday, bringing forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays as part of emergency measures to conserve electricity and fuel.
Pakistan, which produces only a small fraction of the oil it consumes, jacked up gas and diesel prices by about 20 percent, to 321 rupees ($1.15) per liter for gas. This is one of the sharpest single increases in recent years.
Panic buying and long lines have been reported at gas stations in the country, where the steep increase in pump prices has been dubbed a "petrol bomb".
In India, farmers have started hoarding diesel ahead of the wheat harvest and paddy sowing season, fearing a price hike even though the government has said there are no such plans.
Long lines have been reported at gas stations in India and Bangladesh, as customers stock up in anticipation of price hikes.
Similar scenes have unfolded ahead of the festival travel rush in Indonesia, which has just over 20 days of fuel reserves.
Long lines were seen at gas stations in the country, particularly in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra. In Bener Meriah and neighboring Aceh Tengah, videos circulating online show residents flocking to gas stations carrying jerricans to stockpile fuel.
Rising prices
Fuel stockpiling and gas rationing are also occurring in Australia, where farmers have warned that fuel shortages could lead to reduced food supplies and higher grocery prices.
Concerns about fuel flows have led to long lines at gas stations in major cities, and prompted some stations in regional areas to introduce limits of A$20 ($14) per customer. Some stations have run out of fuel due to the sudden surge in demand.
Australia imports about 90 percent of its refined oil, mainly from suppliers in South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia.
Hamish McIntyre, president of the National Farmers' Federation in Australia that represents the nation's 85,000 farm businesses, said: "If farmers can't access reliable and affordable fuel and fertilizer, some may be forced to scale back plantings… That hits farm incomes, agricultural production and food availability."
In South Korea, many car owners also flocked to stations to fill up their tanks before prices rose further, with some gas station operators reporting a 20 percent increase in sales. The government is even considering doing something it has not in over 30 years — mandating a fuel price ceiling.
But experts have sought more clarity. Socio-Economic Research Centre Executive Director Lee Heng Guie told The Straits Times that the government should be more transparent about its contingency plans as well as its ability to both supply and subsidize fuel, given the knock-on impact on inflation.
"Saying we can maintain the pump price for 'one or two months' is too vague for smaller enterprises that run on tight cash flows and margins," the economist said.
Surging crude oil prices could also be a double-edged sword for Indonesia. As a major LNG exporter, the country benefits from automatic price adjustments since LNG pricing is typically pegged to crude oil.
On the other hand, Indonesia imports significantly more crude oil and refined fuel than it exports, meaning higher global prices drive up its import costs.
"Although LNG exports generate additional income, the net revenue windfall from elevated oil and LNG prices is insufficient to offset the expanding burden of domestic energy subsidies," Fabby Tumiwa, chief executive officer of Jakarta-based think-tank Institute for Essential Services Reform, said.
The government subsidizes fuel at the pump below market cost, covering the difference from state coffers. When global crude prices rise, this subsidy burden balloons because the government is typically reluctant to immediately raise retail fuel prices for fear of sparking social unrest.
"Every $1 increase in global crude oil prices triggers an estimated 6.5 trillion rupiah (S$490 million) to 6.7 trillion rupiah in additional subsidy costs," Fabby added.
Uncertainty is rife with no end yet in sight for the conflict, potentially forcing Asian economies — big and small — to absorb further shocks.
Qatar, which supplies a fifth of global LNG, has said it may take at least a month to return to normal production levels, according to a Reuters report. And Saudi Aramco's mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal has also closed due to attacks, it added.
Overall fuel oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz usually total about 3.7 million metric tons per month, but tanker transits are now about 90 percent lower than before, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
Taking a cautious long-term view, Asian countries have been diversifying their energy sources away from the Middle East.
Countries are also trying to increase their domestic energy production, including in renewable energy. In fact, the recent disruptions in oil and gas markets have led many to call for more resilient and diversified energy systems, including renewables and regional grid interconnections.
"This conflict will impact Asia's energy security considerations and deepen the need for energy independence, especially through renewables," said Aarti Khosla, founder of Climate Trends, a consultancy focused on sustainability and environmental issues.
"Many countries in the region have massive import dependence for crude oil and LNG, and are now looking at making power generation adjustments and diversifying supplies," she added.
THE STRAITS TIMES, SINGAPORE


























