As the United States ramps up its military presence in the Middle East, a parallel escalation is unfolding in cyberspace and the media. Speculation about an imminent war with Iran is being amplified daily, fueling anxiety across the region. Against this backdrop, Iran faces a dual challenge: navigating through the gathering storm clouds toward political negotiations that safeguard its interests, while addressing the economic distress facing its citizens.
Iran’s resilience manifests in what can be described as “resistance economy” — a systematic economic self-preservation strategy to counter the unrelenting pressure from the US. The country counters US pressure by reducing reliance on oil revenues, expanding non-oil exports, strengthening domestic production capacity, supporting local industries via import substitution policies, enhancing economic self-sufficiency, creating jobs and developing payment systems that circumvent financial blockades.
This approach has made Iran’s economy resilient. Despite prolonged sanctions and recurrent domestic economic shocks that sparked social unrest, the country managed to sustain basic operations, stabilize the political situation and gradually roll out multi-tiered internal reforms.
What prevented Iran’s economy from collapsing was its domestic resource endowments, relatively complete industrial system, and substantial foreign trade. At the same time, the frequent social unrest in Iran points to an urgent need to reform economic policies.
Iran’s woes are compounded by the propaganda and information warfare launched by the US and Israel. Iran’s opponents are flooding the internet with disinformation, using fake news to propagate narratives that Iran’s current situation is spiraling out of control. They disseminate signals worldwide that the Iranian government is teetering on collapse, and that Iran is unsafe and unfit for investment.
This aims to obstruct potential capital from entering the country, which would worsen its economic conditions, undermine national unity and erode external confidence in Iran’s political stability. Iran needs to counter this psychological warfare to achieve domestic and international confidence in the government’s ability to manage the situation.
A war hurts the interests of all parties. A full-scale war and interference in another country’s internal affairs would violate international law, shatter regional stability and devastate livelihoods. An unstable and civil war-torn Iran would be disastrous for regional peace, global markets and the principles of global fairness and justice.
Iran’s economic problems are primarily due to the US sanctions against the country and secondary sanctions imposed on related nations. Iran’s inflation stems from currency devaluation caused by sanctions, triggering a livelihood crisis. While increased subsidies may temporarily alleviate social discontent, lifting sanctions remains essential to break free from the vicious cycle of inflation.
Iran is an ancient civilization with a rich history and illustrious culture, characterized by continuity in national character and cultural heritage. Iranians have a profound pride in Persian culture and the nation’s glorious past. They consistently emphasize their people’s history of defying hegemonic powers. This legacy fosters both a collective consciousness to unite against external threats and an enduring aspiration for national rejuvenation and strength.
Iran has a distinctly independent spirit within the Middle East, emphasizing self-reliance. Shared collective historical memory and cultural narratives have forged a powerful national cohesion, rooted in traditions of resisting hegemony and opposing foreign interference. This psychological foundation enables the people to unite with dignity against external threats. When faced with military encroachment, the specter of war only strengthens Iranian solidarity.
But while the cohesion stemming from opposition to hegemony enables the Iranian government to withstand the pressure of war clouds, the people’s yearning for prosperity demands that the government swiftly revitalize the economy. Politically, Iran must embrace greater flexibility, persistently explore a development path suited to its national conditions, stabilize domestic governance, and consolidate diplomatic achievements. Economically, Iran must urgently alleviate unemployment and the brain drain to prevent deeper economic collapse.
Iran’s economic security is essential for the region’s long-term stability. As a key node in the “Eurasian Land Bridge” and the East-West air corridor, Iran’s geographical position makes it vital for regional trade. As one of the largest holders of oil and natural gas reserves, Iran’s oil production and exports directly influence global oil prices. If economic and livelihood issues remain unresolved, Iran’s social tensions will continue to erupt cyclically. The potential spillover crises from a turbulent Iran could pose systemic risks to the entire Middle East and even the world.
Potentially meaningful nuclear negotiations, coupled with provocative and exaggerated threats in the same time, define the current complex situation in Iran. US-Iran nuclear negotiations need more intermediary countries to guarantee rebuildable trust and convey accurate messages between Iran and the United States. A peaceful environment not only ensures Iran’s sustainable economic development and its people’s well-being, but is also a prerequisite for regional stability and prosperity. Therefore, maintaining regional peace, refraining from provoking unnecessary wars, and resolving differences through dialogue and negotiation should be the collective responsibility of all nations.

The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute in Shanghai International Studies University.
The views don’t necessarily reflect those of China Daily.