US tariffs will prompt the African continent to make full use of its trade relations with other major countries to advance its economic integration

In the first five months of 2025, China’s exports to Africa expanded by 20.2 percent year-on-year, reaching $84.8 billion. By the third quarter of 2025, Africa was clearly one of China’s leading markets.

A closer look shows that about one-third of China’s exports to Africa went to three of the continent’s largest economies — Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt in the first seven months of 2025. Africa has ambitions in construction and connectivity. Hence, Chinese shipments of construction machinery to Africa rose 63 percent year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, while passenger car exports more than doubled.

In the same vein, the China Development Bank released a $286-million tranche for a railway project in Nigeria and extended a loan for construction in Egypt. All in all, Africa signed $30.5 billion worth of construction contracts with China in the first half of 2025, five times the amount agreed during the same period in 2024. Clearly, the Belt and Road Initiative continued to dovetail with Africa’s hopes and aspirations.

The construction trend is evident throughout the continent. Morocco is investing $9.6 billion to expand and modernize its rail network. South Africa is upgrading its railways and ports at a cost of $13 billion. A railway will soon run through Guinea and Liberia carrying iron ore. The much-publicized Lobito Corridor is intended to carry copper and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the coast for export.

Solar panel installations are sprouting across the continent seemingly overnight. Over the past two years, African (except South African) imports of Chinese solar technology have tripled. In addition, Chinese exports of transformers and converters — critical for renewable energy systems — grew over 51 percent in the first eight months of 2025. Africa’s needs and the price competitiveness of Chinese products are major reasons for this spurt.

Besides exporting to meet Africa’s industrialization drive, major Chinese companies — such as Transsion Holdings, Sany, FAW, BYD, GWM and Chery — have brought their operations to the continent. In the process, the companies are promoting industrialization, creating jobs, and, most importantly, creating a skilled workforce, a key to Africa’s future.

The reality is that if China’s exports of items, which are on Africa’s wish list, are price competitive, it is pragmatic for Africans to continue to buy from China in 2026 and beyond.

The ebb and flow of the trade between China and Africa have a rhythm of their own which is rooted in needs and capacities on both sides.

While China-Africa trade surged in late 2025, the United States has not extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). For over two decades, the AGOA provided 32 sub-Saharan African countries tariff-free access to the US market for 1,800 products by 2024. During the AGOA’s first 20 years ending in 2022, African countries exported over $800 billion in goods to the US. The AGOA expired in September 2025 and the US has imposed new tariffs on goods from 30 African nations that previously enjoyed duty-free access.

Africa might make up for that loss by expanding exports to China. In June 2025, China removed tariffs on imports from all African countries with which it has diplomatic ties. China also authorized imports of agricultural products from Ethiopia, Congo, Gambia and Malawi, bringing the total number of African countries with such access to 19. This effort comes in the wake of expos to promote African products throughout China in the past few years. It also follows ongoing efforts toward wider use of the renminbi in Africa.

But as Afreximbank points out, there are serious structural challenges to expand Africa’s exports to China. These challenges include limited credit availability for some African traders, a patchwork of regulatory frameworks across the African continent, and exchange-rate volatility.

In other words, there is considerable work to be done before China-Africa trade can be more balanced in a sustainable way. Most of all, it is up to Africa to “get its house in order” to face a changing global financial order. Steps might include greater use of the African Continental Free Trade Area to expand intra-African trade, and the deployment of modern financial tools. Above all, Africa needs to offer China a more diversified range of products to break the dependence on commodity exports.

And, of course, the easiest way to do this would be to begin processing African products in Africa, in whole or partially, before offering them to China and the world. Local processing is Africa’s reliable way up the global value-chain. In the end, the tariffs will prompt Africa to make full use of its trade relations with other major countries, position Africa as a strategic trade partner and advance the continent’s economic integration.

The author is a former economist with the World Bank and an adviser for the Kenyan government. 

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.